Supreme Court setting new rules; Firing at the Jammu and Kashmir border
In Brief
ECONOMY
Taxes are not paid by 15 million members of the wealthy class, says FBR chairman
On 25 October, the chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue revealed that a startling 15 million people, including those with incomes from agriculture, do not currently pay any taxes. "This number signifies a noteworthy segment of the populace that stays outside the tax system," Zubair Tiwana stated at a Senate Standing Committee on Finance meeting. The senator Saleem Mandviwalla presided over it. In response to a query, Mr Tiwana stated that it was not practical to levy taxes from low-income households, who make up 65 per cent of the population. Mr Tiwana expressed optimism that if 15 million prospective taxpayers "fulfil their obligations," the tax gap may be considerably decreased. He claimed that 1.2 million more people were added to the tax rolls in the previous year, bringing the total number of taxpayers to 4.9 million. Despite agriculture providing 40 per cent of the country's revenues, according to the FBR chairman, the industry does not generate any tax money. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “15m high earners are not paying taxes: FBR chief,” Dawn, 26 October 2023)
Cash surpluses in Sindh and Balochistan help to reduce the fiscal imbalance
On 25 October, according to the Fiscal Operations Data that the Ministry of Finance made available, the total fiscal deficit of Pakistan, which is the gap between its income and outlays, was recorded at 0.9 per cent of GDP, a little decrease from the 1.0 per cent recorded during the same period in the previous year. The fiscal deficit increased to an absolute PKR 962.80 billion in the first quarter of FY24 from PKR 819.30 billion in the same period the previous year. However, if cash surpluses from the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan weren't there, the budget deficit in the first quarter of FY24 may have reached PKR 1.014 trillion. On the other hand, all four provinces produced cash surpluses in the first quarter of FY23, which reduced the federal government deficit to PKR 1.037 trillion. There was a modest increase in total revenue from 2.4 per cent of GDP during the same period last year to 2.5 per cent in the first quarter. The main cause of this marginal gain is the rise in non-tax revenue, which in 3MFY24 increased from 0.3 per cent of GDP in the previous fiscal year to 0.4 per cent. Meanwhile, tax receipts did not change. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Balochistan, Sindh cash surpluses help contain centre’s fiscal deficit,” Dawn, 26 October 2023)
IMF’s budget deficit targets for Q1 via strict measures
On 25 October, Due to a remarkable 362 per cent increase in petroleum levy collection and a sharp decrease in federal subsidies and development expenses, Pakistan complied with a major requirement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the reduction of the budget deficit during the first quarter, according to a report released by an official. The finance ministry's report also revealed an unsettling trend of unrelenting spending by the interim administrations in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P). The Punjab government was consequently in the red since, from July to September, its expenses exceeded its revenue by PKR 28.6 billion. However, all things considered, the finance ministry had succeeded in demonstrating a primary budget surplus of PKR 417 billion, exceeding the IMF requirement. The IMF team will be arriving in Pakistan on 2 November for the first round of review talks. Post the negotiations, the next loan tranche, totalling USD 710 million, will be released in December. Previous patterns indicate that the surpluses in the first quarter usually translate into deficits in the following quarters. The finance ministry has been able to maintain some fiscal restraint thus far, even though its current expenditures increased by 23 per cent during the July–September quarter. Including interest costs, the total budget deficit for the first quarter of the current fiscal year was PKR 963 billion, or over 1per per cent of GDP, which is an increase of 18 per cent from the same period in the previous fiscal year. (Shahbaz Rana, “Strict measures help meet IMF’s budget deficit target for Q1,” The Express Tribune, 26 October 2023)
EXTERNAL
90 per cent of the Afghan refugees are residing in Pakistan and Iran says the UN
On 25 October, the United Nations announced that the number of Afghan refugees worldwide has climbed from 5.7 million to 6.1 million, primarily due to updated demographic estimates released by the Pakistani government. Ninety per cent of all Afghan refugees were housed in Iran 3.4 million and Pakistan 2.1 million, according to a recent study from UNHCR, the UN organization for refugees. In its Mid-Year Trends Report, which examines forced displacement during the first half of 2023, it stated, "By the end of June, there were an estimated 35.8 million refugees globally, most of whom have been in displacement for many years." This number has increased by 50 per cent in just seven years. The UNHCR reported that by the end of June 2023, there will be 110 million people worldwide who have been displaced due to conflict, persecution, violence, and violations of their human rights, up from 108.4 million at the end of the previous year. (Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan, Iran hosting 90pc of all Afghan refugees: UN,” Dawn, 26 October 2023)
New agreements with China to shape CPEC
On 25 October, Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar stated that Pakistan remained dedicated to carrying out the various sectors' recently completed projects with China. He declared that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would enter a new phase with the recent agreements between the two nations. He claimed that China's Belt and Road Initiative was the guarantee of the growth and prosperity of the entire region during a meeting with Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong. During his recent visit to China, the prime minister conveyed his appreciation to Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese government for the cordial welcome and arrangements. He also said that Pakistan would ensure to implementation of the memorandum of Understanding and agreements during the visit. Kakar finally lauded that both countries are aiding through CPEC. (“Recent accords with China to add a new chapter to CPEC: PM Kakar,” Dawn, 26 October 2023)
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2023
PR Exclusive Update 18
President Arif Alvi uncertain about January elections
On 25 October, Pakistan’s President Dr Arif Alvi was uncertain about the forthcoming elections. In an interview with a private TV channel, President Alvi stated “I do not believe that elections will be held in January.” The timeline stated that new delimitations of the national and four provincial assembly constituencies would be finished by 14 December, more than a month beyond the general elections' ninety-day deadline. Alvi extended an invitation to Chief Election Commissioner Sikandar Sultan Raja at the end of August to talk about scheduling the election within the ninety-day constitutional window that closes in early November. The president claimed in the interview that the ECP told him that it "is not necessary" to address the issue when he issued a letter offering to do so. ( “President doesn’t see elections taking place in Jan,” The Express Tribune, 26 October 2023)
POLITICS
More than a dozen PTI leaders have warrants issued on them
On 26 October, PTI leader Zulfi Bukhari had a red warrant out for him, and in a case involving violence outside the Federal Judicial Complex (FJC) in March of this year, an Anti-Terrorism Court of Islamabad issued perpetual arrest warrants for more than a dozen additional PTI leaders. The Special Secretary of the Ministry of Interior has authorized the issuance of a red notice against Syed Zulfikar Abbas, also known as Zulfi Bukhari, in connection with the judicial complex attack case that was filed under the Anti-Terrorism Act at the Golra police station. On 18 March, hours-long battles between PTI supporters and police in the federal capital resulted in at least 25 injuries, the burning of 30 cars, including motorbikes, and the destruction of a police chowki. The PTI leadership called on followers to come to the court complex via social media, and this led to the enormous crowd that assembled at the FJC. ( “Warrants issued for over a dozen PTI leaders,” Dawn, 26 October 2023)
"In the PTI era, government resources were used to promote party image and leaders."
On 26 October, it was revealed that there was a scheme in place to promote a phoney image of the PTI chairman. A significant scandal from the PTI administration has surfaced, in which state money was misappropriated for unlawful political publicity campaigns, PTI leadership publicity, and the creation of fake propaganda disparaging official institutions. The mission assigned to social media teams was to disseminate a false narrative about PTI under the pretext of the Annual Development Programme (ADP). In addition to agitating people, these accounts were utilized to advance the political goals of the PTI and start a disinformation campaign. With the use of public funds, the propaganda accounts' fan base grew. This project has a set cost of PKR 870 million. The salary range for the staff members was PKR 25,000 to PKR 40,000. ( “Govt resources used in PTI era to promote party image, leaders,” The News International, 26 October 2023)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Framework for sharing telecom infrastructure and 5G auction
On 25 October, IT Minister Dr Umar Saif announced that the federal cabinet has approved the framework for telecom sharing and given the go-ahead for the creation of a committee to auction off the spectrum for the next 5G wireless network. The goal of the infrastructure-sharing framework is to maximize resource consumption and perhaps reduce operating costs for telecom businesses by enabling them to share resources such as towers, antennas, and cable ducts. The minister believed that the adoption of the framework will allow new businesses to enter the domestic telecom market. Regarding the 5G auction, he stated that the new committee, which will be led by the Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar, would be crucial to the deployment of the quicker network. The Federal Board of Revenue officials, secretaries of pertinent ministries, and ministers of IT, research and technology, industry, and production would also be on the committee. (Kalbe Ali, “New telecom framework, 5G auction committee approved,” Dawn, 26 October 2023)
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“Pakistan's annual IT export is 2.6 billion dollars and the government of Pakistan wants to increase this export to 10 billion dollars in the next three years through 5G technology.”- Gum Naam
“UK to charter flights for Afghan refugees stuck in Pakistan. The UK government is to charter flights to relocate Afghan refugees living in Pakistan who have been promised UK visas, starting on Thursday.”
- SSanaSafi
“Generals have resorted to the old "#chaapa" to "keep the devil busy" and have ordered to over burden the young officers and men so that they don't find time to think.... #Pakistan.”
-Rubeena Khan
“At #EconFest, we're bridging the gap between theory and reality. It's not just an event; it's an opportunity to understand and impact Pakistan's economic path. Be part of the change! #PakistanEconomy.”
- Ali Sufan
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Reema Omer, “Missing politicians”
Dawn, 26 October 2023
“In recent times, these include causing defections in political parties through pressures, blackmail, and inducements; creating destabilisation through prolonged ‘sit-ins’; manufacturing media discourse in favour of or against certain political parties or political leaders; arbitrarily using disqualification provisions to remove politicians from the electoral process; and selectively applying accountability laws for in the words of the Supreme Court “oppression and victimisation” of opponents. This year, a new variant in “political engineering” seems to have emerged: politicians are either abducted or arrested, their fate or whereabouts remain unknown for days or weeks, and finally, they make an appearance in press conferences or television interviews where they announce leaving the PTI and make a number of allegations against PTI’s chairperson. These ‘disappearances’ and later ‘reappearances’ are not isolated events, but seem to be systematic and targeted against the political leadership of only one political party and its allies. This suggests that the state is now using enforced disappearances as a tool to weaken the PTI by forcing defections and desertions from the party, as well as using incriminating statements against the PTI’s chairperson by such people shortly after their ‘reappearance’ as an attempt to change his public perception through the media”.
Khurram Husain, “The Nawaz model”
Dawn, 26 October 2023
“The share of votes cast for the PML-N since 1998 has shown a near consistent decline and it remains a question mark whether this trend can reverse itself in the near future. Besides the aging leadership of the N league, and them disconnect with the more youthful voters, there are structural challenges they have to overcome as the electoral demographic is shifting beneath their feet. When meeting this challenge, Nawaz is likely to deploy a model of managing the political economy of the country that is his signature style of politics, and perhaps is the main reason behind his longevity. The model itself is simple in its construction. The real trick is in its implementation. Basically, the Nawaz model requires the disbursement of resources through the electable politicians, schemes run by the provincial government targeting specific segments of the populace, and the development budget of the federal government targeting mega projects for visibility and juicing growth by high public expenditures. Between these three, the party burnishes its presence in the minds of the voters, and creates a growth illusion that appears to people like the return of prosperity.”
Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, “The BRF vision”
The News International, 26 October 2023
“Addressing concerns related to the potential debt trap within the BRI (including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – CPEC) is pivotal and calls for a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play. It is true that a substantial portion of the financing within BRI initiatives takes the form of debt extended to member countries for their identified projects. However, it is essential to recognize that debt in itself is neither good nor bad. It is a financial tool whose value depends on how it is employed.The BRI and the various financial institutions operating under its umbrella serve to address the deficiencies of weakening global financial institutions, which often attach numerous conditions and requirements to their financing for developing countries. These strings attached to traditional funding sources can limit the flexibility and suitability of the financing for the unique needs of recipient countries. In this context, it’s worth considering that had global financial institutions been more supportive of the developing world, alternative means of development cooperation like the BRI might not have been necessary.”
Husain Haqqani, “The return of Nawaz Sharif”
The News International, 26 October 2023
“The triumphant return to Pakistan of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, without much resistance from the judiciary and the administration, amounts to acknowledgment that the establishment made a mistake in removing him from office by judicial fiat in 2017. His return from exile is further evidence of the futility of political engineering as a means of solving Pakistan’s complex problems. Denied access at the time in the Pakistani media, I had predicted the return of the three-time prime minister to Pakistani politics in an article published in a foreign newspaper just ahead of the July 2018 elections. At that time, Nawaz Sharif had been disqualified from running for office for life by the Supreme Court, which meant that he had no legal avenue for appeal.”
Sherry Rehman, “Legacy of courage”
The News International, 26 October 2023
“We all pay tribute to Madar-e-Jamhuriat Begum Nusrat Bhutto on her 12th death anniversary. Begum Bhutto went through one of the darkest periods of Pakistan’s history with her signature resilience and stoic brand of courage. This is the role model of bravery that the PPP universally adopted all over the country for years on end, led on by leaders who celebrated martyrdom in the service of a promise made to the people of Pakistan.That is the promise many generations of the Bhutto family and jiyalas have been ready to live and die for. The promise of power to the people is no small one. Tragically it still requires sacrifice and struggle, which Begum Bhutto embodied, followed by her iconic daughter, who led from the front. Her landmark role in the restoration of democratic and constitutional politics is truly unforgettable. From the inception of the Pakistan People’s Party to her leadership in the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD), her unwavering support for her husband Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and her steadfast commitment to democracy exemplify her courage and determination.”
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“For starters, the deadline must be pushed ahead to allow Afghans enough time to leave with dignity.”
- An editorial in Dawn, “Deadline approaches”
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